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National Weather Service
ABRFC - Tulsa, Okla.

157th Committee Meeting
Oct. 30-November 1, 2007
Branson, Missouri

A Busy 2007 at ABRFC

After several years of drought across most of the ABRFC area, Mother Nature broke loose with copious amounts of precipitation that created some unprecedented flooding in parts of the basin. Eight forecast locations had new floods of record established during May – July 2007:

Location          River                  FS     Date                New Record Old Record
Crest Date Crest Δ
Haven, KS Arkansas 10 05/08/07 13.08 09/28/73 12.95 0.13
Halstead, KS Little Arkansas 25 05/25/07 27.22 11/02/98 27.13 0.09
Fredonia, KS Fall River 17 06/30/07 41.12 04/16/45 36.17 4.95
Independence, KS Verdigris 30 07/01/07 52.40 05/19/43 47.60 4.80
Coffeyville, KS Verdigris 18 07/01/07 30.70 05/07/61 26.75 3.95
Lenapah, OK Verdigris 30 07/02/07 42.89 05/20/43 40.44 2.45
Erie, KS Neosho 29 07/02/07 40.60* 11/05/98 36.96 3.64
Wichita Falls, TX Wichita 18 06/30/07 24.40 10/03/41 24.00 0.40

 * Unable to access wire-weight or staff gage above this stage

The remnants(?) of Tropical Storm Erin generated 7 new floods of record at forecast points in Oklahoma during August 2007:
Location          River                  FS     Date                New Record Old Record
Crest Date Crest Δ
Anadarko, OK Washita 19  08/20/07 26.02  06/06/95 25.37 0.65
Bridgeport, OK Canadian 14 08/19/07 21.03 05/17/82 3.48 17.55
El Reno, OK North Canadian 17 08/20/07 23.10 09/21/65  0.88 22.22
Ninnekah, OK Little Washita 20 08/19/07 21.73 05/09/93 0.33 20.70
Watonga, OK North Canadian 15 08/19/07 19.70 10/03/86 0.46 19.24
Yukon, OK North Canadian 14 08/19/07 16.51 05/30/01 3.92 12.59
Lindsay, OK Washita 18 08/19/07 23.50 05/10/93 1.27 22.23
Additional floods of significance that occurred during Spring – Summer 2007:
Location          River                  FS     Date                2007 Crests Flood of Record
Crest Date Crest Δ
Waurika, OK Beaver Creek 25 06/27/07 31.11 05/19/55 31.30 -0.19
Commerce, OK Neosho 15 07/05/07 29.25 07/16/51 34.03 -4.78
Zenith, KS Rattlesnake Ck 17 05/08/07 19.26 07/18/93 19.90 -0.64
Electra, TX Beaver Creek 24 06/30/07 33.85 05/29/87 34.94 -1.09
Walters, OK East Cache Ck 21 06/30/07 29.44 10/21/83 30.66 -1.22
Bartlesville, OK Caney 13 07/02/07 21.45 10/04/86 27.70 -6.25
Dekalb, TX Red 24 07/14/07 28.80 02/15/38 36.00 -7.20
The ABRFC was dedicated to flood operations:

  • 24-hour operations 54% of time from May 5 – July 15, 2007.

  • 24-hour operations 73% of time from June 12 – July 11, 2007.

  • 24-hour operations 100% of the time from June 25 – July 7, 2007

  • ABRFC issued forecast updates for all four synoptic times 63% of the time from May 1 – July 15, 2007.

  • ABRFC was open and operational continuously from 6 AM on June 25th until 10 PM on July 7th (11 days).

  • Except for a total of 20 hours, ABRFC was open and operational from 6 AM June 11th until 10 PM on July 7th.

New Modeling Pilot Project

ABRFC recently joined in a pilot project with several other River Forecast Centers to test and evaluate a new software framework for river forecasting.  The Delft Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS) was developed by the Dutch hydraulics engineering company WL | Delft, and is in operational use in Europe.  Delft-FEWS is an open source software package which will allow for a more open modeling system, and is envisioned to replace the National Weather Service’s River Forecast System (NWSRFS), an aging system no longer flexible enough for the growing needs of the hydrologic community.  Delft-FEWS is also expected to meet the requirements of  NOAA’s Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which will provide a framework for sharing hydrologic modeling and data within a broader hydrologic community.

ABRFC is in the initial stages of the development. A stand alone version of Delft-FEWS has been installed for familiarization and evaluation. The evaluation of this new modeling framework will be conducted on the Illinois River System. The next phase will take place in late November, when a client-server version will be setup to better emulate the potential of the system.  ABRFC staff will also receive Delft-FEWS training in late December.

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